Wideband delphi is a process used to obtain an estimate by involving multiple estimators and combining their estimates. It has a complicated name but is a simple and intuitive process for producing better estimates.
- Wideband Delphi Estimation Technique Vs Planning Poker Strategy
- Wideband Delphi Estimation Technique Vs Planning Poker For Dummies
- Wideband Delphi Estimation Technique Vs Planning Poker Rules
Wideband Delphi: Here, we move towards a consensus based approach and hence one step closer to introducing a system to the madness. In Delphi, estimation is done through multiple iterations. In every iteration, team members provide their individual effort estimate of the task/module/project and then regroup to hear each other's estimates. The term 'wideband' is used because, compared to the Delphi Method, the Wideband Delphi Technique involved greater interaction and more communication between the participants. In Wideband Delphi Technique, the estimation team comprise the project manager, moderator, experts, and representatives from the development team, constituting a 3-7. What is Estimation Techniques Planning Poker? Planning Poker Estimation. Planning Poker is a consensus-based method for guessing, typically used to guess effort or relative size of user stories in Scrum. Planning Poker chains three estimation techniques − Wideband Delphi Technique, Analogous Estimation, and Estimation using WBS. The Wideband Delphi estimation method is a consensus-based technique for estimating effort. It derives from the Delphi method which was developed in the 1950-1960s at the RAND Corporation as a forecasting tool. It has since been adapted across many industries to estimate many kinds of tasks, ranging from statistical data collection results to.
Better estimates allow you to better choose and cost projects. A better estimate of the project can allow you to win more business with more competitive bids, and avoid unprofitable projects.
Wideband delphi should acheive a better estimate than individual estimation because it focuses on involving multiple experts, and combining their expertise in a way that achieves a better estimate than a simple mathematical combination of the estimate. In addition it also encourages break down of the item to be estimated into smaller items, another good method to improve the accuracy of the estimates.
How does wideband delphi work?
Wideband delphi is a very simple process. You need an estimation coordinator and a number of estimators. Generally you do not want too many estimators as discussions will be longer and consensus will be more difficult to reach.
Step 1: Kickoff meeting
In the kickoff meeting describe the project to be estimated and its requirements to all estimators. Answer any questions raised to clarify the project as much as possible.
Step 2: Individual estimation
Each estimator breaks down the project into tasks, and estimates the tasks. These individual estimates must be written down.
Step 3: Discussion meeting
Hold a meeting where estimators present their estimates and discuss reasons for the estimates. Because some estimators will see problems or solutions that others did not, the discussion ensures that during the next round of estimation each estimator will take more information into account in their estimates.
Wideband Delphi Estimation Technique Vs Planning Poker Strategy
Step 4: Repeat
Repeat steps 2 and 3 as many times as necessary to obtain an estimate range with an acceptable level of variation between experts.
Variations
When you understand that the key to wideband delphi is the combination of multiple estimates by discussion, you can easily vary the process to suit your environment. Some simple variations might be:
1. Provide a common task breakdown in the kickoff meeting.
With each estimator working on the same breakdown discussion can be focused on the estimates, rather than being split between estimates and breakdown. Estimators should still be able to add tasks to the breakdown to capture any additional work overlooked in the original breakdown.
2. Perform everything in one meeting.
By completing individual estimates and discussions in the same meeting time can be saved, particularly on small projects. It is still important however that each estimator estimates individually, writes their estimates down, and discussion only takes place after all have finished their individual estimation.
3. Come to a group consensus rather than multiple rounds
You could also have only a single round of estimation, with the discussion afterwards targeted to come to a single group consensus. The consensus can be in the form of a range which can limit the length of the meeting.
Wideband delphi is more robust than a single estimator coming up with a number. It has a number of similarities to agile planning poker, however it is different in that estimates for all tasks are completed up front individually rather than estimating and reaching consensus on each task one at a time.
You can use wideband delphi to improve the estimates for your next project. TaskTrakz project management software allows you to record your project task breakdown, along with one, two or three point range estimates for each task so you can easily record your wideband delphi estimates, and then execute the project directly on the same task breakdown. Get your free 14 day trial of TaskTrakz here.
Out of several estimation techniques involved in Scrum, few are noted below.
1- Wideband Delphi
2- Relative sizing / Story Points.
3- Affinity Estimation.
4- Estimate Range.
Wideband Delphi
Wideband Delphi is a group-based estimation technique for determining how much work is involved and how long it will take to complete. Individuals within a team anonymously provide estimation for each feature, and the initial estimates are plotted on a chart. The team then discusses the factors that influenced their estimates and proceed to a second round of estimation. This process is repeated until the estimates of individuals are close to each other and a consensus for the final estimate can be reached.
Planning poker is one example of a Wideband Delphi technique. It is also important to note that it is the individual input collected by a mechanism that avoids the group thinking. Then the individual inputs are used for a group decision.
Relative Sizing / Story Points.
In addition to being used for estimation cost, story points can also be used for estimating the overall size of a User Story or feature. This approach assigns a story point value based on an overall assessment of the size of a User Story with consideration given to risk, amount of effort required, and level of complexity. This assessment will be conducted by the Scrum Team and a story point value will be assigned. Once an evaluation is done on one User Story in the Prioritized Product Backlog, the Scrum Team can then evaluate other User Stories relative to that first story. For example, a feature with a 2-point story value must be twice as difficult to complete as a feature with a 1-point story; a 3-point story should be three times as difficult to complete as a 1-point story.
Affinity Estimation
Affinity estimation is a technique used to quickly estimate a large number of User Stories. Using sticky notes or index cards or tape, the team places User Storied on a wall or other surface, in order from small to large. For this, each team member begins with a subset or User Stories from the overall Prioritized Product Backlog to place by relative size. This initial placement is done in silence. Once everyone has placed their User Stories on the wall, the team reviews all the placements and may move User Stories around as appropriate. The second part of the exercise involves discussion. Finally, the Product Owner will indicate some sizing categories on the wall. These categories can be small, medium or large, or they may be numbered using story point values to indicate relative size. The team will then move User Stories into these categories as the final step in the process. Some key benefits of this approach are that the process is very transparent, visible to everyone, and is easy to conduct.
Estimate Range
Wideband Delphi Estimation Technique Vs Planning Poker For Dummies
Estimates for projects should be presented in ranges. Precise figures may give an impression of being highly accurate when in fact they may not be. In fact, estimates by definition are understood not to be precisely accurate. Estimate ranges should be based on the level of confidence the team has in each estimate. The range can be narrow when the team is confident and wide when the team is less confident.
Wideband Delphi Estimation Technique Vs Planning Poker Rules
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